The global slowdown we will go through in 2023 will not affect all business sectors equally. Crédito y Caución has published its detailed growth forecasts for 16 key sectors in 30 markets that allow us to identify which sectors will perform well in Europe, America and Asia.

In the Eurozone, which is especially exposed to the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine because of its geographical proximity and its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels, growth opportunities will be concentrated in the automotive, ICT, and pharmaceutical sectors.

Car production will grow by 7% in 2023 (versus 3.2% worldwide), with France leading the way, followed by Germany and the UK. Despite a possible weakening in demand, the sector will see a boost as inventories recover and the threat of energy rationing fades. The pharmaceutical sector will see strong growth in Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. Consolidation of production facilities, supply chains, and production standards promise solid growth in Europe in the medium term. The ICT sector will also continue to grow in all European markets, despite high inflation and economic uncertainty.

In America, a mild recession is expected in the United States due to the effect of prices and interest rates on domestic demand, which will inevitably affect other economies in the region. Growth opportunities will be in sectors such as automotive and transportation. Transportation in the United States and Mexico grew by double digits in 2022 and will maintain good momentum in 2023. As for automobile production, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil will experience growth in excess of 4%. High order books and low inventories will boost the sector, but consumer confidence is low and inflation is high.

In Asia, Crédito y Caución expects growth to continue to decelerate as global demand weakens. Construction, ICT, food and transportation are forecasting strong growth. Construction will grow by 6.4% (compared to 1.9% worldwide). Growth will be especially strong in Indonesia, Vietnam and China, which will boost infrastructure investment to offset the difficulties in real estate. The ICT sector will grow by about 6.5% (compared to 3.3% worldwide). India, which has outperformed all major economies over the past decade and will benefit from a large, young, tech-savvy and relatively cheap labor force, will grow by 19%.

China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia also stand out. Food will grow 4.0% (versus 1.2% worldwide) due to the growing middle class in all emerging markets in the region, which is replacing staple foods with higher value-added products. China will see the largest increase. Transport and logistics will grow by 7% (compared to 3.8% worldwide), due to increased passenger transport and e-commerce. The most intense dynamism will be in India and Japan.

This article is republished as part of a partnership with Supply Chain Magazine - read the original article here.

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