Let's stop thinking about everything that needs to be done on Planet Earth for a moment and talk about... other planets, and the space between them. Once the exclusive domain of government agencies, the space economy is now a sector characterized by rapid innovation and private investment. This transformation has opened up countless opportunities throughout the value chain, from satellite manufacturing to space tourism, with the promise of lucrative returns in the medium to long term. Shall we open the doors of the mothership to see where there are opportunities for companies to enter the sector?
Satellite manufacturing, for example, is a cornerstone of the space industry, with the global satellite market projected to grow from 25 billion dollars in 2021 to over 54 billion dollars in 2026 (MarketsandMarkets, 2021). This growth is driven by the increasing demand for communication, Earth observation, and navigation services. Companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin have transformed the launch of services, reducing costs and increasing access to space. SpaceX's Falcon 9, for example, claims to have significantly reduced the cost per kilogram of payload, making space more accessible to smaller companies.
The data services segments, in particular Earth observation and satellite internet, provide critical data for agriculture, disaster management and environmental monitoring. This segment is expected to reach 7 billion dollars by 2030 (NSR Reports, 2022). In addition, satellite Internet services, led by initiatives such as SpaceX's Starlink (yes, Musk again) and Amazon's Kuiper Project, aim to bridge the digital divide by providing high-speed Internet to remote areas - a topic that is both relevant and controversial if we consider, for example, the allegations that the Starlink system was being used in the process of illegal mining in the Amazon rainforest. This sector is expected to grow exponentially with the satellite broadband market expected to exceed 43 billion dollars by 2027(Allied Market Research, 2021).
Manufacturing and assembly in space represents the next frontier for the space industry. The ability to manufacture and assemble components in space could drastically reduce costs and increase the longevity of space missions. The in-space manufacturing market, currently in its infancy, is expected to reach 14 billion dollars by 2030 (Future Market Insights, 2022). This includes the production of high-value materials such as ZBLAN fiber, which can be produced more efficiently in microgravity conditions.
Closer to the usual B2C consumer relationships, space tourism is no longer a distant dream, but a booming industry where companies such as Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and (yes...) SpaceX have made significant strides, offering suborbital and orbital flights to private citizens. The space tourism market is expected to reach 3 billion dollars by 2030, driven by rising demand and falling costs (Space Foundation, 2021). In addition, concepts such as space hotels and lunar habitats are being developed, promising new opportunities for hospitality and real estate in space. However, what is the environmental footprint of these initiatives? A question that may be inconvenient in times of euphoria and cannot be ignored.
We have the same concerns for one of the most sensitive topics: asteroid mining and lunar resource extraction are set to become significant components of the space economy. The ability to mine asteroids for precious metals and extract resources from the moon can support sustained human presence in space and reduce dependence on Earth-based resources. The space resource utilization market is expected to reach 3.8 billion dollars by 2030 (Global Market Insights, 2021). Companies such as Planetary Resources and Moon Express are at the forefront of this emerging field, exploring ways to effectively harness space resources. It's speculation, but perhaps this is the definitive trigger for a new phase of geopolitics that is already featuring in major international debates: relations and conflicts of interest in "space politics".
What about Portugal? The Portuguese Space Agency (Portugal Space), created in 2019, coordinates national space activities, supports research, and development and promotes international collaboration. The country's location makes it an ideal place for launching, and tracking satellites. The Azores, in particular, is being developed as a potential location for space ports, with the Azores International Research Center (AIR Centre) promoting space science and technology.
Portugal actively participates in international space initiatives as a member of the European Space Agency (ESA) and collaborates with NASA. Initiatives such as ESA BIC Portugal support start-ups in the space sector, helping entrepreneurs develop space-related technologies and bring them to the market. Near Lisbon, the program Space for Business takes place annually at the Nova SBE campus in Carcavelos, alongside the universities of Rotterdam and St. Gallen and in partnership with ESA: a course aimed at connecting knowledge of the sector with the development of business models and innovation projects.
The next decade should see unprecedented growth in the sector, transforming the way we interact and use space. Sounds fantastic... but can we make one request to infinity? Just one: that this process can be consistent, so that we don't repeat the same mistakes we've been making here throughout modern history. It needs to be mitigated, not just opened up all the time: in practical terms, we're light years away from any kind of Planet B.
This article is a republication of a text originally published in Exame - read it here.
